Serie B Promotion 2025-26: Monza Go Up While the Market’s Top Pick Empoli Miss Out
The 2025-26 Serie B promotion picture is final: which teams went up to Serie A? The answer is Monza achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season. These qualification markets settled roughly 61,885 USDC in total — put the pre-match money distribution and the final list side by side, and the market’s hits and misses are plain to see.
📋 Contents: ① Final list vs market table ② What the market got right and wrong ③ The bigger picture ④ FAQ
Serie B Promotion 2025-26: Final List vs Market Prediction
| Team | Peak implied probability | Volume (USDC) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli | — | 13,510 | ❌ Did not win |
| Monza achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season | — | 12,945 | ✅ Won |
| Juve Stabia achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season | — | 11,545 | ❌ Did not win |
| Palermo achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season | — | 10,348 | ❌ Did not win |
| Catanzaro achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season | — | 7,824 | ❌ Did not win |
| Modena achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season | — | 5,714 | ❌ Did not win |
Data source: public prediction markets (Polymarket), all fully settled. Peak implied probability = the highest implied probability the option reached before settlement; volume reflects market attention. This table is provided for match-interest and sentiment analysis only and does not constitute any recommendation.
Hits and Misplaced Favourites
Set against the final list, the market’s hit rate follows the classic pattern of “accurate at the top, chaotic at the margins”: the highest-volume spots largely came in, while the last one or two places diverged clearly from the pre-match money. That fits the general rule of qualification markets — the near-certain spots get priced close to full very early, and the real contest crowds into the marginal seats, which is also where upsets and value live side by side. In this set of markets, the named example of that cost is Empoli — a side that absorbed 13,510 USDC of attention yet did not appear on the final list.
The Serie A Picture Behind the List
Serie A’s recent title races keep proving the same point: the market’s early-season favourites rarely survive until spring, and the genuine champion only takes shape after the winter break. The virtue of list-style markets is that they force the market to take a position on every single seat, not just back one champion — which is also why the biases they expose are finer-grained than a title market’s. For team-by-team season arcs, see the Serie A hub and our Serie A 2025-26 title recap: Inter Milan on top while the market looked away; official data is on the official Lega Serie A site.
FAQ
Q: Which teams were promoted to Serie A?
A: Monza achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season (2025-26 season, per prediction-market settlement).
Q: Were there any upsets on the list?
A: One instructive case: high-volume Empoli failed to make it — a sample of the market backing the wrong horse.
Q: Where does the data come from?
A: Settled markets on a public prediction market (Polymarket), used for interest analysis only — not a recommendation.
