Serie A 2025-26 Title Review: Inter Milan Take the Scudetto as the Money Backs Napoli
The 2025-26 Serie A title race is settled, and Inter Milan lifted the trophy. Across the season this prediction market accumulated roughly 3,469,520 USDC in volume, and the gap between where the money flowed and where the trophy landed holds the most revealing storyline of this Serie A campaign.
📋 Contents: ① Title probabilities vs actual result ② What the market got right and wrong ③ Inter Milan’s road to the title ④ FAQ
Serie A 2025-26 Title: Market Probabilities vs Actual Result
| Team | Peak implied probability | Volume (USDC) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 49.5% | 664,587 | ❌ Did not win |
| Verona | 2.6% | 581,019 | ❌ Did not win |
| Inter Milan | 100% | 532,869 | ✅ Won |
| AC Milan | 31% | 302,390 | ❌ Did not win |
| Roma | — | 227,679 | ❌ Did not win |
| Como | — | 182,923 | ❌ Did not win |
| Juventus | — | 171,871 | ❌ Did not win |
| Cagliari | — | 124,420 | ❌ Did not win |
| Parma | — | 124,291 | ❌ Did not win |
| Genoa | — | 102,844 | ❌ Did not win |
| Atalanta | — | 91,024 | ❌ Did not win |
| Torino | — | 90,296 | ❌ Did not win |
| Pisa | — | 85,019 | ❌ Did not win |
| Lecce | — | 75,588 | ❌ Did not win |
| Fiorentina | — | 58,900 | ❌ Did not win |
| Cremonese | — | 53,801 | ❌ Did not win |
Data source: public prediction markets (Polymarket), all settled. Peak implied probability = the highest implied probability an option reached before settlement; volume reflects market attention. This table is for interest and sentiment analysis only and does not constitute any recommendation.
What the Market Got Right and Wrong: The Distance Between Consensus and the Trophy
The market misjudged this one: Napoli, the highest-volume option (664,587), did not go the distance, and it was Inter Milan who finished on top. The reason the money was misplaced is easy to reconstruct — honours markets lean heavily on “early-season impressions”. Big-name stars and defending champions attract capital by default, while the genuine contender only gets acknowledged once the data becomes impossible to ignore, by which time its implied probability has long lost any payout value.
Inter Milan’s Road to the Title
Serie A has produced the tightest title races of any of Europe’s top five leagues in recent seasons: no absolute dominator, a contender pack trading blows, and a market-leader probability curve that changed hands all season long. On the prediction market’s timeline, Inter Milan’s probability curve kept climbing through the second half of the campaign, matching the rhythm of rivals dropping away one by one — a title isn’t forged overnight, and neither is the market’s recognition of it. For the match-by-match record, see our Serie A section. Official results are available at the Lega Serie A website.
FAQ
Q: Who won the 2025-26 Serie A title?
A: Inter Milan won the 2025-26 Serie A title.
Q: Which team did the market favour before the season?
A: By volume, the money was most concentrated on Napoli, at roughly 19% of the market’s total.
Q: Were the champions the market favourite?
A: No. The volume focus was on Napoli; Inter Milan were on the underpriced side of the market.
