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Match Report | Spain 1-0 Argentina
Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in their 2026 World Cup knockout tie at MetLife Stadium.
Pre-match win probability model most-likely score 1-1
Prediction vs result
The result diverged from the model's most-likely score (1-1), and that gap is the story of this match.
Strength on paper
Spain (No.1) and Argentina (No.3) sit close on our PageRank Elo ladder — evenly matched on paper.
Data and verdicts here are generated automatically by our in-house rating and prediction models and update with the live result; analysis only, no insider claims.
