World Cup 2026 Semifinals: Qualification Odds & Money Flow
World Cup semifinals predictions — before a ball is kicked, prediction markets have already put real money on the table. This preview captures the implied probabilities and volume distribution as of writing (June 11, 2026). Pre-match probability is a flowing snapshot of consensus, not a verdict.
Implied Probabilities & Money Flow (as of writing)
| Direction | Implied probability | Volume (USDC) |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 32% | 27,148 |
| England | 34% | 20,770 |
| Spain | 45% | 17,435 |
| Norway | 15% | 13,462 |
| Japan | 9% | 10,696 |
| France | 42% | 8,598 |
| Ivory Coast | 4% | 6,586 |
| Morocco | 10% | 6,133 |
| Portugal | 30% | 5,997 |
| Mexico | 11% | 5,827 |
| USA | 10% | 5,694 |
| Croatia | 8% | 5,665 |
| Turkiye | 9% | 4,938 |
| Austria | 5% | 4,488 |
| Paraguay | 4% | 4,451 |
| Uruguay | 9% | 4,246 |
| Brazil | 30% | 3,692 |
| Sweden | 5% | 3,668 |
| Canada | 3% | 3,482 |
| Switzerland | 10% | 3,332 |
| Ecuador | 8% | 3,311 |
| Senegal | 6% | 3,040 |
| South Korea | 4% | 2,454 |
| Uzbekistan | 1% | 2,316 |
| Tunisia | 2% | 2,301 |
| Germany | 21% | 2,177 |
| DR Congo | 1% | 1,687 |
| Netherlands | 21% | 1,367 |
| Colombia | 14% | 1,058 |
| Haiti | 0% | 1,018 |
Source: public prediction markets (Polymarket); live figures move with trading. Sentiment analysis only — not betting advice.
How to Read a Pre-Match Market
The interesting part is never “who has the highest number” but where probability diverges from common sense. Money piling onto the bigger brand often carries a name premium; probability moving sharply close to kick-off usually means team news being priced in. Our recap archive shows markets are sharpest in elite head-to-heads and most fallible in mid-table and national-team contexts — which kind this one is, the post-event recap will tell.
FAQ
Q: What do these probabilities mean?
A: A live, money-weighted consensus — not a fixed prediction.
Q: When was this captured?
A: As of publication (June 11, 2026).
Q: Will there be a follow-up?
A: Yes — a post-event recap comparing market expectations with the outcome.
