World Cup 2026 Round of 16: Qualification Odds & Money Flow
World Cup Round of 16 predictions — before a ball is kicked, prediction markets have already put real money on the table. This preview captures the implied probabilities and volume distribution as of writing (June 11, 2026). Pre-match probability is a flowing snapshot of consensus, not a verdict.
Implied Probabilities & Money Flow (as of writing)
| Direction | Implied probability | Volume (USDC) |
|---|---|---|
| France | 79% | 69,032 |
| Portugal | 71% | 37,966 |
| England | 76% | 33,564 |
| Mexico | 55% | 21,652 |
| Germany | 69% | 21,139 |
| Brazil | 71% | 20,861 |
| Spain | 78% | 18,189 |
| Ghana | 15% | 15,465 |
| Japan | 40% | 15,173 |
| Argentina | 69% | 13,443 |
| Turkiye | 47% | 12,941 |
| Morocco | 43% | 11,828 |
| Belgium | 63% | 10,566 |
| Netherlands | 54% | 10,401 |
| Colombia | 53% | 9,170 |
| Switzerland | 58% | 8,891 |
| Norway | 53% | 8,737 |
| Saudi Arabia | 9% | 6,608 |
| Iran | 20% | 6,206 |
| Egypt | 31% | 6,045 |
| Senegal | 34% | 5,907 |
| New Zealand | 8% | 5,177 |
| USA | 47% | 5,048 |
| Ecuador | 43% | 4,956 |
| Ivory Coast | 33% | 4,590 |
| South Africa | 12% | 4,498 |
| South Korea | 30% | 3,018 |
| Qatar | 3% | 2,746 |
| Austria | 29% | 2,584 |
| Uruguay | 39% | 2,325 |
| Canada | 43% | 2,145 |
| DR Congo | 10% | 1,435 |
| Croatia | 39% | 1,312 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 24% | 1,122 |
| Algeria | 22% | 1,051 |
Source: public prediction markets (Polymarket); live figures move with trading. Sentiment analysis only — not betting advice.
How to Read a Pre-Match Market
The interesting part is never “who has the highest number” but where probability diverges from common sense. Money piling onto the bigger brand often carries a name premium; probability moving sharply close to kick-off usually means team news being priced in. Our recap archive shows markets are sharpest in elite head-to-heads and most fallible in mid-table and national-team contexts — which kind this one is, the post-event recap will tell.
FAQ
Q: What do these probabilities mean?
A: A live, money-weighted consensus — not a fixed prediction.
Q: When was this captured?
A: As of publication (June 11, 2026).
Q: Will there be a follow-up?
A: Yes — a post-event recap comparing market expectations with the outcome.
