Europa League 2024-25 Round of 16: The Final Line-up vs What the Market Priced In
The Europa League 2024-25 Round of 16 line-up is final: which teams made the last sixteen? The answer is (see the comparison table). These qualification markets settled roughly 75,944 USDC in total — put the pre-match money distribution and the final list side by side, and the market’s hits and misses are plain to see.
📋 Contents: ① Final list vs market table ② What the market got right and wrong ③ The bigger picture ④ FAQ
Europa League 2024-25 Round of 16: Final List vs Market Prediction
| Team | Peak implied probability | Volume (USDC) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qualification (one of two) | — | 13,459 | 🏁 FCSB |
| Qualification (one of two) | — | 12,419 | 🏁 Viktoria Plzen |
| Roma | — | 12,215 | 🏁 Roma |
| Qualification (one of two) | — | 11,945 | 🏁 AZ Alkmaar |
| Qualification (one of two) | — | 10,290 | 🏁 Ajax |
| Bodø/Glimt | — | 9,902 | 🏁 Bodø/Glimt |
| Qualification (one of two) | — | 5,714 | 🏁 Fenerbahce |
Data source: public prediction markets (Polymarket), all fully settled. Peak implied probability = the highest implied probability the option reached before settlement; volume reflects market attention. This table is provided for match-interest and sentiment analysis only and does not constitute any recommendation.
Hits and Misplaced Favourites
Set against the final list, the market’s hit rate follows the classic pattern of “accurate at the top, chaotic at the margins”: the highest-volume spots largely came in, while the last one or two places diverged clearly from the pre-match money. That fits the general rule of qualification markets — the near-certain spots get priced close to full very early, and the real contest crowds into the marginal seats, which is also where upsets and value live side by side. In this set of markets, the named example of that cost is FCSB vs. PAOK — a line that absorbed 13,459 USDC of attention yet did not appear on the final list.
The Europa League Picture Behind the List
With fixtures stretching deep into Thursday nights, squad rotation is the norm in the Europa League, which makes pre-match predictions inherently less certain than in the top five leagues — the market getting it wrong is not surprising; how it gets it wrong is. The virtue of list-style markets is that they force the market to take a position on every single seat, not just back one champion — which is also why the biases they expose are finer-grained than a title market’s. For team-by-team season arcs, see the Europa League hub and our Europa League 2024-25 title recap: Tottenham on top while the market looked away; official data is on the official UEFA Europa League site.
FAQ
Q: Which teams made the Round of 16?
A: (See the comparison table) — Europa League 2024-25 season, per prediction-market settlement.
Q: Were there any upsets on the list?
A: One instructive case: the high-volume FCSB vs. PAOK line failed to make it — a sample of the market backing the wrong horse.
Q: Where does the data come from?
A: Settled markets on a public prediction market (Polymarket), used for interest analysis only — not a recommendation.
