Europa League 2024-25 Round of 16: Who Went Through, and Where the Market’s Money Landed
The final picture of the 2024-25 Europa League round of 16 is in: who advanced from each tie? The answer is in the table below. This set of qualification markets traded roughly 83,931 USDC in total, and laying the pre-match money distribution alongside the final list makes the market’s hits and misses plain to see.
📋 Contents: ① Final list vs market table ② What the market got right and wrong ③ Reading the landscape ④ FAQ
Europa League 2024-25 Round of 16: Final Outcomes vs Market Expectations
| Team | Peak implied probability | Volume (USDC) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tie winner (one of two) | — | 17,135 | 🏁 Lyon |
| Rangers | — | 17,030 | 🏁 Rangers |
| Tie winner (one of two) | — | 11,031 | 🏁 Frankfurt |
| Tottenham Hotspur | — | 10,967 | 🏁 Tottenham Hotspur |
| Manchester United | — | 10,529 | 🏁 Manchester United |
| Roma | — | 10,411 | 🏁 Athletic Bilbao |
| Olympiacos | — | 6,828 | 🏁 Bodø/Glimt |
Data source: public prediction markets (Polymarket), all markets settled. Peak implied probability = the option’s highest implied probability before settlement; volume reflects market attention. This table is for tournament-interest and sentiment analysis only and does not constitute any recommendation.
What the Market Got Right and Wrong: Correct Calls and Misplaced Favourites
Set against the final outcomes, the market’s hit rate follows a classic pattern — accurate at the top, messy at the margins: the highest-volume picks largely delivered, while the last place or two diverged visibly from the pre-match money. That fits the general law of qualification markets: the near-certain places get priced close to full very early, and all the genuine contention crowds into the marginal ties — which is also where upsets and value coexist. In this set of markets, the named example of that cost is “FCSB vs. Lyon, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup” — a tie that absorbed 17,135 USDC of attention without the money’s pick coming through.
The Europa League Landscape Behind the List
Compared with the Champions League, Europa League prediction markets carry thinner liquidity, so a handful of large orders can move probabilities noticeably — when reading this competition’s data, keep “money attention” and “real strength” strictly apart. The virtue of list-style markets is that they force the market to take a position on every single place rather than just back one champion — which is also why the biases they expose are finer-grained than a title market’s. For each team’s season trajectory, see our Europa League hub and our Europa League 2024-25 title review: Tottenham Hotspur triumph as the market misfires; official data is at the UEFA Europa League website.
FAQ
Q: Who advanced from the round-of-16 ties?
A: See the comparison table above (2024-25 Europa League, per prediction-market settlement).
Q: Were there any upsets on the list?
A: There is a meaningful contrast: the high-volume “FCSB vs. Lyon, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup” market did not resolve the way the money leaned — a clear example of misplaced market money.
Q: Where does the data come from?
A: Settled markets on a public prediction market (Polymarket), used for interest analysis only — not a recommendation of any kind.
