Champions League 2025-26 League Phase Winner Review: Arsenal Finish Top — Candidate Markets Compared
The 2025-26 Champions League league phase winner question was answered as the campaign closed: who finished first in the league phase? The answer is Arsenal. This honours market traded roughly 1,102,628 USDC in total, and the money each name on the candidate list absorbed reads like a season-long health check of football opinion.
📋 Contents: ① Candidate probability table ② What the market got right and wrong ③ The season behind the honour ④ FAQ
Champions League 2025-26 League Phase Winner: Candidate Peak Probability vs Volume
| Candidate | Peak implied probability | Volume (USDC) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabağ | 49.5% | 232,454 | ❌ Did not win |
| Newcastle United | — | 158,600 | ❌ Did not win |
| Galatasaray | — | 108,874 | ❌ Did not win |
| Borussia Dortmund | — | 71,009 | ❌ Did not win |
| Arsenal | — | 64,674 | ✅ Won |
| Chelsea | — | 53,620 | ❌ Did not win |
| Barcelona | — | 50,814 | ❌ Did not win |
| Bayern Munich | — | 49,304 | ❌ Did not win |
| Tottenham Hotspur | — | 47,402 | ❌ Did not win |
| Paris Saint-Germain | — | 42,354 | ❌ Did not win |
| Inter Milan | — | 41,089 | ❌ Did not win |
| Manchester City | — | 30,180 | ❌ Did not win |
| Juventus | — | 23,090 | ❌ Did not win |
| Real Madrid | — | 21,071 | ❌ Did not win |
| Liverpool | — | 19,403 | ❌ Did not win |
| Atlético Madrid | — | 12,629 | ❌ Did not win |
| Atalanta | — | 11,846 | ❌ Did not win |
| Marseille | — | 9,995 | ❌ Did not win |
| Napoli | — | 9,535 | ❌ Did not win |
| Benfica | — | 7,383 | ❌ Did not win |
| Ajax | — | 7,152 | ❌ Did not win |
| Sporting CP | — | 6,492 | ❌ Did not win |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | — | 6,332 | ❌ Did not win |
| Copenhagen | — | 6,129 | ❌ Did not win |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | — | 6,007 | ❌ Did not win |
| Kairat | — | 5,191 | ❌ Did not win |
Data source: public prediction markets (Polymarket), all settled. Peak implied probability = the highest implied probability an option reached before settlement; volume reflects market attention. This table is for interest and sentiment analysis only and does not constitute any recommendation.
What the Market Got Right and Wrong
Arsenal’s win sat in the market’s pricing blind spot: before settlement they were not the volume magnet (that was Qarabağ, soaking up 232,454), and their peak probability spent long stretches below the front-runners. This kind of “low-attention winner” is the sample most worth keeping from honours markets — it shows that over a long campaign, the market’s allocation of attention lags badly behind the marginal shifts in on-pitch performance.
The Champions League Season Behind the Honour
In the reformatted Champions League, “margin for error” became the key phrase: a single league-phase defeat is no longer fatal, which also made the probability curves in prediction markets swing far more violently than in the old knockout-group era — all the more reason to review them. An honours market is the season’s narrative in compressed form: it squeezes dozens of matchdays into a single name. For the matches that built that name, head to our Champions League section; official statistics are at the UEFA Champions League website.
FAQ
Q: Who finished first in the league phase?
A: Arsenal (2025-26 Champions League, per prediction-market settlement).
Q: Who did the market favour most?
A: By volume, the focus was on Qarabağ, at roughly 21% of the market’s total.
Q: Does this result count as an upset?
A: Yes. The heavily backed side failed to deliver — a clear sample of the market getting it wrong.
