Champions League 2025-26 Round of 16 Review: The Qualifiers vs Where the Market’s Money Went
The final list for the 2025-26 Champions League round of 16 is out. Which teams made the last 16? Galatasaray, Bodø/Glimt, Real Madrid, Newcastle United, Atlético Madrid, Atalanta, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayer Leverkusen, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Sporting CP. This qualification market traded roughly 1,757,683 USDC in total, and lining the pre-match money distribution up against the final list makes the market’s hits and misses plain to see.
📋 Contents: ① Final list vs market table ② What the market got right and wrong ③ Reading the bigger picture ④ FAQ
Champions League 2025-26 Round of 16: Final List vs Market Forecast
| Team | Peak implied probability | Volume (USDC) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | — | 163,633 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Inter Milan | — | 148,113 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Galatasaray | — | 147,635 | ✅ Qualified |
| Bodø/Glimt | — | 129,453 | ✅ Qualified |
| Club Brugge | — | 127,203 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Real Madrid | — | 122,401 | ✅ Qualified |
| Newcastle United | — | 108,863 | ✅ Qualified |
| Atlético Madrid | — | 100,650 | ✅ Qualified |
| Atalanta | — | 96,367 | ✅ Qualified |
| Juventus | — | 95,185 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Paris Saint-Germain | — | 91,044 | ✅ Qualified |
| Monaco | — | 87,304 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Benfica | — | 64,133 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Bayer Leverkusen | — | 57,998 | ✅ Qualified |
| Qarabağ | — | 57,291 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Olympiacos | — | 36,493 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Napoli | — | 27,146 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Kairat | — | 26,666 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Liverpool | — | 18,755 | ✅ Qualified |
| Arsenal | — | 17,002 | ✅ Qualified |
| Marseille | — | 9,221 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| PSV Eindhoven | — | 7,170 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Tottenham Hotspur | — | 7,025 | ✅ Qualified |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | — | 5,493 | ❌ Did not qualify |
| Sporting CP | — | 5,438 | ✅ Qualified |
Data source: public prediction markets (Polymarket), all settled. Peak implied probability = the highest implied probability an option reached before settlement; volume reflects market attention. This table is for interest and sentiment analysis only and does not constitute any recommendation.
What the Market Got Right and Wrong: Correct Calls and Misplaced Favourites
The most interesting part of this list isn’t who made it — it’s who didn’t. The names that drew heavy money before settlement and still went out are the real cost the market pays for “brand premium”. Qualification markets naturally skew towards big clubs, while the format itself — single-leg deciders or two-legged ties — dilutes paper strength in exactly the way markets find hardest to price. In this market, the named sample of that cost is Borussia Dortmund, who absorbed 163,633 USDC of attention and never appeared on the final list.
The Champions League Picture Behind the List
The Champions League has always been football’s highest-volume prediction-market event, and the money’s nose usually twitches faster than the league table — yet several of this season’s markets proved that where the hot money gathers is not necessarily where the trophy lands. The virtue of a list-style market is that it forces the market to take a position on every individual place, rather than just backing one champion — which is also why the biases it exposes are finer-grained than a title market’s. For each team’s season trajectory, see our Champions League section; official data is at the UEFA Champions League website.
FAQ
Q: Which teams made the round of 16?
A: Galatasaray, Bodø/Glimt, Real Madrid, Newcastle United, Atlético Madrid, Atalanta, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayer Leverkusen, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Sporting CP (2025-26 Champions League, per prediction-market settlement).
Q: Were there any upsets on the list?
A: There was a telling one: high-volume Borussia Dortmund failed to make it — a sample of the market’s money being misplaced.
Q: Where does the data come from?
A: Settled public prediction markets (Polymarket), used for interest analysis only and not as any kind of recommendation.
