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Match Report | United States 4-1 Paraguay
United States beat Paraguay 4-1 in their 2026 World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium.
Pre-match win probability model most-likely score 2-0
Prediction vs result
The result diverged from the model's most-likely score (2-0), and that gap is the story of this match.
Strength on paper
United States (No.23) and Paraguay (No.37) are 14 places apart on our PageRank Elo ladder; United States went in the stronger side.
Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Turkey | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
What's next
Data and verdicts here are generated automatically by our in-house rating and prediction models and update with the live result; analysis only, no insider claims.
