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Match Report | Netherlands 5-1 Sweden
Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 in their 2026 World Cup Group F match at NRG Stadium.
Pre-match win probability model most-likely score 2-0
Prediction vs result
The result diverged from the model's most-likely score (2-0), and that gap is the story of this match.
Strength on paper
Netherlands (No.5) and Sweden (No.33) are 28 places apart on our PageRank Elo ladder; Netherlands went in the stronger side.
Group F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 4 |
| 2 | Japan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
What's next
Data and verdicts here are generated automatically by our in-house rating and prediction models and update with the live result; analysis only, no insider claims.
