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Match Report | Turkey 3-2 United States
Turkey beat United States 3-2 in their 2026 World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium.
Pre-match win probability model most-likely score 1-1
Prediction vs result
The result diverged from the model's most-likely score (1-1), and that gap is the story of this match.
Strength on paper
Turkey (No.19) and United States (No.20) sit close on our PageRank Elo ladder — evenly matched on paper.
Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Turkey | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
Data and verdicts here are generated automatically by our in-house rating and prediction models and update with the live result; analysis only, no insider claims.
