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Match Report | Ecuador 2-1 Germany
Ecuador beat Germany 2-1 in their 2026 World Cup Group E match at MetLife Stadium.
Pre-match win probability model most-likely score 0-2
Prediction vs result
The result diverged from the model's most-likely score (0-2), and that gap is the story of this match.
Strength on paper
Ecuador (No.12) and Germany (No.11) sit close on our PageRank Elo ladder — evenly matched on paper.
Group E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
Data and verdicts here are generated automatically by our in-house rating and prediction models and update with the live result; analysis only, no insider claims.
