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Match Report | Brazil 2-1 Japan
Brazil beat Japan 2-1 in their 2026 World Cup knockout tie at NRG Stadium.
Pre-match win probability model most-likely score 2-0
Prediction vs result
The result diverged from the model's most-likely score (2-0), and that gap is the story of this match.
Strength on paper
Brazil (No.1) and Japan (No.21) are 20 places apart on our PageRank Elo ladder; Brazil went in the stronger side.
Data and verdicts here are generated automatically by our in-house rating and prediction models and update with the live result; analysis only, no insider claims.
